Personally, I favor the Steelers to get in. Schatz: Despite the presence of Skylar Thompson as the quarterback for Miami, our playoff odds simulation at Football Outsiders gives the Dolphins the best chance of winning the seventh seed, at 40%. How do you see any of these games ending up, and who will grab that No. Pittsburgh (-2.5, 40.5), once 2-6, can get in with a win over the Browns and losses by the Patriots and Dolphins. the Jets (-1, 38.5) and need a win and Patriots loss. The Dolphins, potentially without their top two QBs, are a home underdog vs. It's win-and-in for the Patriots at Buffalo (-7, 42.5). The last spot in the AFC playoffs comes down to the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers. Even if Lawrence finds a way to pull it out at the end, I expect it to be close. I expect this one to be physical and ugly, with the Titans rested and relatively healthy after their "bye" last week. The Jaguars have played much better of late, but it just feels like the Titans are that veteran team that knows how to win tough games. Snellings: I'll take the Titans with the points. For props, I like Zay Jones over 4.5 receptions (-121) and 53.5 receiving yards (-131), considering he has bonus incentives heading into the game. For the Jags, unders have hit five times in seven home games this season. The under has hit 11 of 16 times in Titans matchups, and their defense should be ready to roll. Dobbs will be under center, which will make the Jags respect the passing game more so than they would with Malik Willis at the helm. The Titans are a solid first-half team and utilized last week to rest up and get healthy for this all-or-nothing matchup. I also like the Titans +3.5 in the first half. Marks: I have the Jags winning the matchup but the Titans covering. The Jaguars should put this game in Lawrence's hands and win easily. Meanwhile, Lawrence has grown into one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the game, and the Titans' defense is 28th against the pass compared to second against the run. ESPN Stats & Info has the Jaguars 10th in the league in pressure rate, and they should be able to pressure an inexperienced quarterback such as Dobbs. And that's without considering that Dobbs will be making only his second NFL start. Our DVOA ratings have a big gap between the Jaguars (15th in weighted DVOA, which gives less strength to early games) and the Titans (26th in the same metric). Schatz: I like the Jaguars in this game and would lay the points as well. On the other side, Henry is freshly rested to handle a massive workload against a team he has traditionally dominated in the box score. a depleted Titans defense that was already one of the league's easiest to pass against this season. Trevor Lawrence is playing incredible football and gets a great matchup vs. I don't love laying the number, but I do love the over 40. I think this will be a competitive game.įulghum: I like the Jaguars to close this thing out, win the game and the division. Derrick Henry is back, and Joshua Dobbs has another week to figure out the Titans' playbook. With nine days or more to prepare for a regular-season game, Mike Vrabel is 9-1 straight-up and 9-1 ATS while beating the closing point spread by close to 15 points per game. Who do you see winning this game and earning the division title and fourth seed in the AFC playoffs?įortenbaugh: Beer-money bet on the Titans. The Jaguars (-6.5, 40) are winners of four straight, while Tennessee is on a four-game losing streak and dealing with injuries across the board. The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars meet Saturday night to decide the winner of the AFC South (8:15 p.m. Note: Lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated. So what is worth looking at from a betting perspective? And which are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?īetting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz offer their insights into the games with tips and picks. Games without postseason implications can be particularly difficult to navigate because it can be a guessing game of which teams will or won't play starters or how long they will play. Week 18 of the NFL season brings us all sorts of playoff scenarios, from who's in and who's out to seeding. Week 18 betting odds, picks, tips: Titans to cover? Steelers make playoffs? You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser
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